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  • Nicotine Next (JUUL Labs Reg Intel) - Vapor and Nicotine Regulatory Intelligence Insights for November 11, 2024

Nicotine Next (JUUL Labs Reg Intel) - Vapor and Nicotine Regulatory Intelligence Insights for November 11, 2024

Deep Dive - Understanding Excess Lifetime Cancer Risk (ELCR)

Welcome to Nicotine Next, the premier source for regulatory intelligence and surveillance in the rapidly evolving nicotine product landscape. The mission is to provide timely, in-depth insights on regulatory compliance challenges, industry innovations and policy shifts impacting e-cigarettes, tobacco, and novel nicotine products worldwide. By delivering expert analysis and actionable information, Nicotine Next empowers stakeholders to stay informed and navigate the marketplace of the future.

Recent Regulatory Intelligence Recap

Key Developments:

1. Regulatory & Policy:

  • Multiple countries (UK, Gibraltar, Jersey) announcing plans to ban disposable vapes

  • New tax measures being implemented on vaping products in UK, Poland, and Italy

  • France announcing plans to ban nicotine pouches

  • FDA updating import alerts and warning against "smart" e-cigarettes

2. Market Performance:

  • Altria Q3 revenue slightly down (-0.4%) to $6.3B, with NJOY gaining market share

  • Japan Tobacco (JT) reporting Q3 net profit down 11.5% YoY to $900M

  • BAT Malaysia showing positive results with 14% profit increase driven by Vuse sales

  • Turning Point Brands reports increased sales and profits.

  • Haypp Group experiences a 25% rise in sales.

3. Illicit Trade:

  • Multiple reports of illegal vape seizures across countries

  • Growing concerns about black market following flavor bans

  • The Philippine Finance Department estimates a $900 million annual impact from tobacco and e-cigarette smuggling, with recent seizures valued at $14 million.

Key Research Themes:

1. Health Impact Studies:

  • New research on vaping's effects on cardiovascular health

  • Studies on nicotine's impact on brain development

  • Research on e-cigarette use in specific populations (older adults, youth)

2. Behavioral Research:

  • Multiple studies on quitting behaviors and cessation effectiveness

  • Research on social media's influence on vaping behavior

  • Studies on stress, anxiety, and depression related to e-cigarette use

Active Focus Areas:

  • Youth vaping prevention

  • Smoking cessation programs

  • Nicotine delivery systems evaluation

  • Behavioral interventions for quitting

The Modified Risk Claim:

Using General Snus instead of cigarettes puts you at a lower risk of mouth cancer, heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, emphysema, and chronic bronchitis.

The FDA granted an 8-year authorization renewal (versus original 5-year) based on:

  • Well-established health risk evidence

  • Continued low youth initiation risk

  • Demonstrated appropriate consumer understanding

  • Fulfilled post-market requirements

  • Need for longer assessment period of switching behavior

Consumer Comprehension (from the Patterns of Use Study):

  1. Understanding of Risk Reduction:

  • 69.8% of baseline participants correctly understood the basic risk reduction message

  • Understanding remained high (72.5% to 77.8%) across all study waves

  • Comprehension levels aligned with or exceeded those seen in peer-reviewed literature

  1. Understanding of Continued Health Risks:

  • Consumers understood General Snus still carries health risks

  • For mouth cancer risk perception:

    • 34.9% perceived low risk

    • 34.6% perceived moderate risk

    • 13.1% perceived very low risk

  • For heart disease risk perception:

    • 39.1% perceived low risk

    • 34.1% perceived moderate risk

    • 18.1% perceived very low risk

  1. Understanding of Exclusive Use Requirement:

  • Among those who understood the basic claim (69.8% of participants):

    • 80.3% correctly understood they must use "zero cigarettes" to reduce risk

    • This understanding remained stable across study waves

    • Participants perceived dual use (cigarettes + snus) as more harmful than exclusive snus use

  1. Study Limitations:

  • All participants were General Snus users at baseline

  • Significant study attrition occurred

  • Participants weren't shown the claim during the study to avoid biasing the sample

  • Demographics differed somewhat from general population of cigarette smokers

The FDA concluded that the evidence shows:

  • Most users understand the relative risk reduction compared to smoking

  • Users understand the products still pose health risks

  • Users comprehend the need for exclusive use to achieve risk reduction

  • The claim continues to be "understood by consumers in the context of total health and in a manner that could reduce individual risk and benefit population health"

Timeline to Authorization

July 17, 2023

  • Swedish Match U.S.A., Inc. submitted MRTP renewal application

December 1, 2023

  • FDA made MRTPA renewal available for public comment

June 2024

  • TPSAC meeting held to discuss renewal application

  • Committee discussed health effects, marketing strategy, and recommendations for future post-market surveillance

August 14, 2024

  • Public comment period closed

  • FDA received 11 unique submissions:

    • 10 contained relevant comments

    • 1 was not relevant

    • Comments focused on legal issues, consumer understanding, study methods, and marketing concerns

November 6, 2024

  • Environmental assessment and FONSI (Finding of No Significant Impact) completed

November 7, 2024

  • FDA issued Modified Risk Granted Order (MRGO)

  • 8-year authorization granted

Notable timing elements:

  • Total review time: approximately 16 months

  • Public comment period: approximately 8.5 months

  • TPSAC meeting held about 6 months after submission

  • Authorization granted about 3 months after public comment period closed

The seminar led by Dr. Benjamin Toll, titled “E-cigarettes in the US: Use by Physicians, Prevalence, Intentions to Quit, and Findings from Several Trials Investigating Methods for Quitting,” provided a comprehensive look at e-cigarette use, especially among young adults, and presented research on cessation methods. Here’s an overview:

  1. Speaker Background:

    • Dr. Toll, a prominent figure in tobacco treatment, shared his extensive experience working in public health and advocacy, particularly in treating tobacco dependence.

  2. Healthcare Considerations for E-Cigarettes:

    • Dr. Toll discussed the importance of behavioral counseling and FDA-approved medications as first-line treatments for tobacco cessation. He noted that for individuals unable to quit smoking through these methods, e-cigarettes might serve as an alternative to reduce exposure to harmful chemicals.

  3. Focus on Young Adults:

    • The seminar emphasized the significance of e-cigarette use among 18-24-year-olds, a demographic the tobacco industry targets due to its potential for long-term brand loyalty.

  4. Studies on Cessation Intentions and Efforts:

    • Data from the PATH study (a large, nationally representative survey) was reviewed to illustrate patterns in e-cigarette use and intentions to quit. Findings indicated a substantial interest in quitting, though success rates varied across user types (e.g., dual users versus e-cigarette-only users).

  5. Pilot Studies on Cessation Aids:

    • Dr. Toll shared results from two pilot studies:

      • Nicotine Replacement Therapy (NRT): A trial using NRT (patches and lozenges) showed modest success in helping e-cigarette users quit.

      • Varenicline vs. Placebo: This study, conducted at two sites, indicated that varenicline could be effective for e-cigarette cessation, with significant quit rates observed at the 8- and 12-week marks.

  6. Dual Users:

    • Findings suggested that dual users (those who smoke both cigarettes and e-cigarettes) had more difficulty quitting and might require higher NRT doses. This highlighted the need for more robust cessation interventions for this group.

  7. Future Directions:

    • Upcoming studies plan to expand on the varenicline trial with a larger sample size and include biological markers of oncogenesis. These trials aim to refine and validate effective cessation strategies for those dependent on e-cigarettes.

  8. Summary Points:

    • Dr. Toll concluded with key takeaways: FDA-approved methods remain the primary recommendation, but e-cigarettes could serve as harm reduction for persistent smokers. The urgency for quality research in e-cigarette cessation was underscored, as the popularity of e-cigarettes continues to rise in the U.S.

The seminar emphasized both the potential role of e-cigarettes in harm reduction and the critical need for effective cessation support, particularly for young adults and dual users​

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